Harvest forecast - June 2014

Good harvest of crops is expected; areas under rape not increasing any more

According to the first estimates of harvest as at 20 June 2014, it is expected that the production of basic cereals is to reach 6 654 thous. tonnes of grain and the production of rape 1 259 thous. tonnes. The production of basic cereals will be down by 170 thous. tonnes (- 2.5%) compared to that of the last-year; the production of rape is expected to be lower by 184 thous. tonnes (-12.8%).

The estimated production of basic cereals (excluding grain maize) in an amount of 6 654 thous. tonnes of grain is by 170 thous. tonnes lower than the last year production (-2.5%). The drop of production of cereals was mainly due to winter wheat (-234 thous. tonnes) and rye (-61 thous. tonnes), while in other cereals production is expected to grow by 125 thous. tonnes in total. The expected per hectare yield of basic cereals of 5.11 t is by 2.1% lower, y-o-y. Per hectare yield is expected to decrease at winter wheat and rye, while at other cereals their yield is expected to grow, y-o-y, the most significantly in oats and spring wheat. Areas under basic cereals were slightly reduced to 1 302 thous. hectares (-0.3%). Significant drops in areas under crops were recorded only for rye, slightly reduced were areas under winter barley and oats. Expected harvest of basic cereals is comparable with both five-year average (+1.5%) as well as ten-year average (-1.5%).

Winter wheat is spread on almost a third of all sowing areas (32.0%) and thus it is the most frequently grown crop in the Czech Republic. The estimated production is 4 296 thous. tonnes and it is by 234 thous. tonnes lower than in 2013 (-5.2%). The production drop was entirely due to the decrease of expected yield by 5.6% to 5.43 t/ha. The sowing area of 791 thous. hectares is almost the same as in 2013 (+0.3%).
Area under spring wheat increased by 10.4%, y-o-y, to 45 thous. hectares; at the expected yield of 4.54 t/ha (+9.4%), a significant 21.0% y-o-y production increase to 206 thous. tonnes is estimated.

The production of spring barley is estimated to be 1 162 thous. tonnes, which is by 43 thous. tonnes (+3.8%) higher than in 2013. Its sowing area increased by 2.0%, y-o-y, to 248 thous. hectares and an estimated per hectare yield also slightly grew to 4.69 t/ha (+1.7%).
This year, expected production of winter barley is to be by 4.8% higher, y-o-y, at the level of 497 thous. tonnes. The increase is caused by an increase in the expected per hectare yield by 8.1% to 4.83 t/ha. The sowing area of 103 thous. hectares is by 3.1% lower, y-o-y.

The rye sowing area has been growing for the two preceding years. However, this year it decreased by 33.0%, y-o-y, to 25 thous. hectares and thus reached the level of 2011. The expected per hectare yield of 4.60 t is by 2.1% lower and the estimated production of 116 thous. tonnes is by more than a third lower than the actual one in 2013 (-34.4%).

The expected harvest of oat increased by 8.9%, y-o-y, to 151 thous. tonnes. The average per hectare yield increased by 12.2% to 3.58 t/ha, while sowing areas decreased by 2.9% to 42 thous. hectares.

The production of triticale in this year is estimated to be 226 thous. tonnes (+5.5%). The production increase is contributed to by an increase of the sowing area to 48 thous. hectares (+3.6%) as well as expected yield to 4.66 t/ha (+1.7%).

Rape is growing in 2014 at 15.8% of sowing areas and thus it is the second most frequent crop next to winter wheat. This year, the long-term trend of an increasing sowing area of rape stopped as its area dropped by 7.0%, y-o-y, to 389 thous. hectares and thus it was almost on the same level as in 2011. The estimated per hectare yield of 3.23 t/ha is by 6.4% lower than in 2013 and the expected production of 1 259 thous. tonnes dropped by 184 thous. tonnes (-12.8%). Despite that, the expected production of rape exceeds by 9.1% a five-year average and by 20.6% a ten-year average, namely thanks to increasing per hectare yields (+7.5% and +6.3%, respectively) and an increase in the sowing areas (+1.5% and 13.5%, respectively).

More detailed information on estimated per hectare yields and production of selected crops in the Czech Republic as a whole and broken down by region are given in the following publication ‘Harvest forecasts – operative report as at 20 June 2014’.
Information on the area and structure of sowing areas is released in the publication of ‘Census of sowing areas in the Czech Republic as at 31 May 2014’.


Notes:
Contact person: Jiří Hrbek, (+420) 274 052 331, e-m ail: jiri.hrbek@czso.cz
Data source: the CZSO sample survey in businesses farming agricultural land
End of data collection: 20 June 2014
End of data processing: 10 July 2014
Following outcomes: Harvest forecasts – operative report for June 2014 (contains more detailed information concerning estimates of the per hectare yields and production of selected fruits and early potatoes - also at /csu/czso/odhady-sklizne-operativni-zprava-k-2062014-3kv3zviuvn
Update procedure: The next forecast of the per hectare yields and production of selected agricultural crops as at 15 July 2014 will be released by the Czech Statistical Office on 13 August 2014.

Published: 11.07.2014
The data are valid as of the release date of the publication.